Indian Economy: Progress and Challenges at the International Level
Indian Economy: Progress and Challenges at the International Level
Dr. Raju Ghanshyam Shrirame
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If the country's GDP is such an important factor in influencing the world, then India must work hard for it. If India wants to be at the forefront of world trade today, it needs to speak openly about its sovereignty in international trade agreements and economic reconciliation with the world, as well as in international discussions.
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The downturn in the Indian economy is currently temporary. The Indian economy is one of the fastest growing economies in the world and it is expected to create a new path for itself. Globally, India has the potential to become the world's third largest economy in the 2020s after the two superpowers, the US and China. If India maintains its annual economic growth rate of 10 per cent, it is expected to overtake Germany in the next five years and Japan in the next seven years. By the end of this decade, India's economy is expected to reach 7 trillion. Even if India's annual economic growth rate remains at least 8 per cent, this goal can be achieved. The Indian economy is expected to reach the third position by the end of this decade. In the last quarter, India's gross national product (GDP) declined by 23 per cent. Although 1 per cent remains, the slowdown in growth is only temporary due to the impact of the epidemic. The Indian economy is expected to undergo a number of positive changes in the near future. Another important reason is that the global economies of many developed countries are also expected to recover from the recession. At the same time, the overall picture is that we will see many important changes on the domestic front as well. If the Indian economy today is the key to strengthening international economic ties, then India needs to re-establish its ties with various countries. This will enable India to co-operate with these countries from time to time on international issues. If the country's GDP is such an important factor in influencing the world, then India must work hard for it. If India wants to be at the forefront of world trade today, it needs to speak openly about its sovereignty in international trade agreements and economic reconciliation and international discussions with the world.
International interactions are changing because of the country's rising GDP and rapidly growing economic growth rate, and so have they. In 1998, when India conducted five simultaneous nuclear tests at Pokhran in Rajasthan to show its defense prowess, India's gross national product (GDP) was १ 421 billion. The United States and Japan had imposed strict economic sanctions on India after India's nuclear tests. In the international arena, China had also voiced strong opposition to India after the test. Britain, France and Russia did not take a hard line at that time. Seven years later, in 2005, the United States signed a civil nuclear agreement with India. During these seven years, India's GDP more than doubled compared to 1998. It had reached a level of about ४० 940 billion. Japan, which initially imposed sanctions on India after the nuclear tests, backed the civil nuclear deal. Britain, France, Russia and Germany were among the countries that supported the agreement between the US and India. China, which has strongly opposed India's nuclear tests, had also criticized the Indo-US civil nuclear deal.
India's GDP has now reached ७ 2.7 trillion. When India repealed Article 370, which gives special status to Jammu and Kashmir, in the country's parliament, China was the only country in the UN Security Council to protest India's decision. This time, the US, Britain, France and Russia made it clear that this was an internal matter of India. That is why China was the only country in the UN Security Council to oppose India's decision. Even Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, two Muslim nations, withdrew from opposing India. In order to dominate the world, the GDP of any country must be at a high level. But that may not be enough to make a global impact. For this, India must strengthen its foreign and economic policies. The slowdown in the Indian economy is temporary. It will remove the current government. India's fast growing economy will pave the way for us. The important thing behind this is that India is a democratic country. There will be many ups and downs in the path of economic development of this democratic country. The situation is no different in other large democracies. The same is true today in countries such as the United States, Britain, Japan, and Germany. India is now entering 2021 with many economic challenges. India needs to focus more on six fronts over the next decade. Economic and foreign relations with all countries are important for India. But in the next decade, these six areas are likely to be at the center of our country's foreign policy. India will have to work on several fronts simultaneously.
Many complex issues will have to be negotiated. More important than trade and nationalism, technology and control over it, energy and security, trade, India will have to give the world something that will benefit everyone. We also have to eradicate poverty on the domestic front.
US: Moving in the right direction, but need to take a new leap
It is clear that cooperative relations with the United States are extremely important to India. The broader the relationship with the United States, the more deeply rooted it is. We also have trade relations with the United States. We are also important partners in terms of security and defense policy. But it is also true that the United States has always been unreliable for us. The importance of India-US relations will continue in the years to come. Whether it's challenging China's bigotry in Asia, or trade-industry. These relations are extremely important for both countries.
Relations between India and the United States are not always cordial. I don't think so. The US may have felt that India should pursue a liberal approach to market opening. India will demand that the US provide more opportunities for Indians in their country. So, the US would expect their Boeing aircraft to fly to India. India, on the other hand, will try to balance it through Airbus. Mutual cooperation in trade will play a vital role in strengthening India-US relations. Dialogue between Indian and American citizens can also play an important role. The Government of India must safeguard this relationship.
China: International Enemy on the Economic Front
The biggest challenge facing Indian experts this decade is China. After launching 5G technology, India's efforts to keep Chinese companies like Huawei and ZTE away from it have been successful. These companies are lobbying extensively in the media and security sectors. Therefore, it is hoped that such a policy will help keep India safe. In the meantime, we will see that there will be various discussions on the issue of China. In the end, security will win and Huawei will be out of the competition. However, to get there, we will have to face many tough challenges. Border management is going to be one of our challenges. Pakistan's ally Pakistan has come a long way since the Balakot airstrikes. India is suffering huge losses due to trade imbalance with China. India has to bear losses, while China is making huge profits. Despite making huge profits, its neighbor China has from time to time expressed strong resentment towards India. In the coming decade, China will seek to gain more and more through dialogue with Indian strategists and domestic strategists. However, at present, there is no one in India who has a positive attitude towards China. If China changes or improves its negative attitude towards India, we can expect a change in the thinking of Indian experts by the end of this decade.
Russia and France: Although relations are good, they need to be expanded
Russia and France are both members of the United Nations Security Council. The two countries have so far maintained good relations with India. Both these countries have supported many important decisions taken by India in recent times. While supporting India, he is also seen opposing China on occasion. In the past, Russia has supplied large quantities of arms to India. France is in the same line now. On the one hand, the support of Russia and France for India is proving to be useful for a successful confrontation with the United States. On the other hand, India is also emphasizing on meeting its security needs from different countries. Beyond these strategic ties, India has a great opportunity to expand its ties with both Russia and France. Along with Russia, India can also increase its proximity on the energy front. For this, a new way of importing gas can be devised. In the coming decade, after the signing of the Civil Nuclear Cooperation Agreement with France, it will not be a surprise to see an agreement reached between the two countries on the construction of nuclear power plants.
Neighboring countries: India needs to focus on Nepal, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. We have seen India improve its relations with its three neighbors, Bhutan, Myanmar and Maldives. At such a time, India needs to take the lead in the coming decade and focus more on improving its relations with Nepal, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. The main reason for this is that India is a large economy and the most influential country. Therefore, India needs to rethink its relations with these countries.
Efforts should be made to resolve the recent disputes with these countries. We have allowed China to take advantage of the dispute with these countries for no reason. This gave China an equal opportunity. By bringing a little bit of humility in our political policy, we can better establish relations with these countries as before. Because neither of these countries is under pressure to choose between India or China. Both can build good relations with these countries. But even if China has great strategic and economic strength, India is not a weak player. Besides, even though India has less power than China, we can make up for it with technological capabilities.
There are products like Aadhaar or online payment UPI (Unified Payments Interface) that we can give as a reward to neighboring countries. Not only this, it can also provide this facility to other countries of the world. In addition, Covin, a healthcare app, can provide this facility to countries in Africa and South America, especially for the planned management of vaccinations. What's more, the United States and Britain will also benefit from India's cooperation in this regard.
Japan and Germany: Relations need to be strengthened
Japan and Germany are the third and fourth largest economies in the world, respectively. We need to strengthen or expand our relations with these countries. We also have economic and strategic relations with Japan. We have established diplomatic relations with Japan through security dialogue programs in four countries. So our economic ties with Japan have been built through investment and trade.
India and Japan have friendly relations. However, the two countries expect the relationship to become even closer. Because both these countries want to face the bullying China. India-Germany relations are normal. The two countries have cooperative relations in the field of robotics such as trade, investment and technology exchange. But they are not on the security front.
German companies are looking for new countries to invest in due to the rising cost problem on the domestic front. So India wants to make it easier for German companies to operate here. The reason behind this is to encourage the manufacturing sector in India. India needs to change its rules on how to welcome investors rather than create problems along the way.
West Asia: Need to reach new heights
India needs to work harder than ever to build a ५ 5 trillion economy. India is already the world's third largest oil importer. There is no doubt that India's energy needs will increase in the years to come. Because we are geographically close, we are more dependent on West Asian countries to meet our energy needs. On the other hand, a large number of Indians are working in West Asian countries. Therefore, we need to strengthen our relations with the Gulf countries.
The reason behind this is to meet our energy needs and the Indian workers living there should continue to send their earnings to India. In view of these interests, strategic ties between India and the Gulf countries need to be further strengthened. As we work with Japan, Australia and the United States in the Indo-Pacific region, over the next decade, India will have to focus on developing stronger security ties with these countries. If India adopts such a policy, India's importance in the security equations in the Gulf countries, which are important in meeting India's energy needs, will increase and we can become active partners in this.
(The author is a member of the Board of Studies in Economics at R. T . M Nagpur University Nagpur and He is a Vice-Principal of the Degree College at Jeevan Vikas Mahavidyalaya, Devgram.)